June 2026

TL;DR: Hamilton and Stoney Creek detached homes are down $400,000+ from their 2022 peak. Ontario prices are expected to stay soft through 2026 with recovery closer to 2027. Deals are falling apart more often, power of sale listings are rising quietly, and sellers still pricing like 2022 are losing. Buyers have more inventory, more time, and more negotiating power than they have had in years. The window is open. Most people are still hesitating.

My clients were cramped, frustrated, and ready for more space.

They needed to sell and buy at the same time with no clear path forward.

Here is what happened:

They bought 5+ acres for $350,000 below asking price.

And we sold their home using a retargeting campaign so dialled in that every targeted buyer saw the property an average of 7.1 times. The buyer who purchased it came back three times before pulling the trigger.

MLS alone would not have done that.

They move in within weeks. Already grateful. Already excited. Already living the next chapter before they have even unpacked a box.

This market rewards the people who stop waiting and start moving with the right plan behind them.

The full story is in the comments. 👇

Will house prices go up in 2026? Ask the headlines and you will get fear. Ask someone still pricing their home like it is 2022 and you will get denial. Ask the data, and you get something far more useful.

I work this market every single day. Hamilton. Stoney Creek. The streets, the neighbourhoods, the deals that close and the ones that fall apart at the finish line. I am not writing this from a boardroom or a forecast spreadsheet. I am writing from the trenches.

So here is the honest picture. Real numbers. No fluff.

What the Experts Are Saying

CMHC has been direct about this. Ontario is the only province expected to see continued price softness in 2026, with a recovery projected closer to 2027. TD Economics revised its forecast earlier this year, pulling back from an original prediction of a 4.1% price increase. They are now expecting prices and sales to decline before any meaningful rebound takes hold. CREA downgraded its national outlook too, projecting closer to 1.5% annual price growth nationally, with Ontario sitting near the bottom of that range.

This is not a crash. It is a reset. And resets create real opportunity for the people who are paying attention.

The Hamilton Numbers I Am Looking at Right Now

Here are the median sale prices for detached freehold homes in Hamilton going back to 2021.

The peak was 2022. That is not my opinion. That is the data. A detached home in Hamilton hit a median of $1,028,250 in February of that year. Right now in 2026, that same category of home is sitting around $720,000 to $745,000.

That is a real correction. And for buyers, that is a real opportunity sitting right in front of you.

Stoney Creek Tells a Similar Story

Stoney Creek has always commanded stronger prices than Hamilton proper. The community, the location, the lifestyle demand it. But the directional trend is following the same path.

Stoney Creek peaked at $1,230,000 in February 2022. In February 2026 the median came in at $805,000. That is a $425,000 gap from the top of the market. Buyers who were completely priced out of Stoney Creek three years ago are now looking at a real path back in.

What I Am Seeing on the Ground

Here is where I want to be honest with you, because the context behind these numbers matters just as much as the numbers themselves.

Failed transactions are rising across Ontario. Financing is now the leading reason deals are collapsing. Not inspections. Not conditions. Financing. I am watching buyers load up their offers with more conditions because they have seen deals fall apart and they want protection. I am also watching some buyers unable to close because their own home has not sold in time (thankfully, none of them are my clients).

Mortgage renewals are creating real pressure. Homeowners who bought or renewed during the low-rate era are now carrying significantly higher monthly costs. Power of sale listings are quietly increasing in Ontario. That is what happens when a lender steps in after a default and forces the sale. These situations are more common than most people realize right now.

Investors and variable-rate holders are feeling it the most.

I am not telling you this to create fear. I am telling you this because understanding what is driving the market is the only way to make a smart decision inside it. If you are looking to up-size or break into the market, there is a significant opportunity right now. 

What I Would Tell a Buyer Right Now

If you have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the "right moment," I want you to sit with this for a second.

Inventory is elevated. Days on market are longer. Homes in the Hamilton area are averaging 47 days on market right now, a 30% increase year over year. Sellers are negotiating. Conditions are being accepted. The dynamic has genuinely shifted toward buyers in a way I have not seen in years.

CMHC expects Hamilton sales activity to pick up as economic uncertainty fades. The transit connection to Toronto, combined with the ongoing movement of buyers leaving the GTA looking for more space and more value, continues to support long-term demand in this area. Hamilton is not going anywhere.

The buyers who move while everyone else is hesitating are typically the ones who build the most equity over time. I have seen that play out in this market more than once.

You do not need to catch the exact bottom. You need to buy a good home in a community that supports your life, at a price that actually makes sense. That window is open right now in Hamilton and Stoney Creek in a way it was not in 2021 or 2022.

What I Would Tell a Seller Right Now

I am not going to tell you what you want to hear. I am going to tell you what you need to know.

If you are pricing your home based on what your neighbour sold for in the spring of 2022, you are working against yourself. The market has corrected. Buyers know it. The data reflects it. I see overpriced homes sit, collect price reductions, and ultimately sell for less than they would have if they had been priced right from day one. That pattern repeats itself constantly in a market like this one.

Sellers who are winning right now are the ones being strategic. Homes that are priced correctly, presented well, and marketed with a real plan are moving. The buyers are active. They are just more cautious and better informed than they were two years ago.

The sellers who struggle are the ones fighting the data instead of working with it. I do not want that to be you.

The Bigger Picture on Whether Prices Will Rise in 2026

Most forecasts say price increases in Ontario will be modest at best this year, and not consistent across the province. But real estate has always been local, and I mean that.

Hamilton and Stoney Creek are not defined by provincial averages. They are defined by transit access, community quality, lifestyle demand, immigration, and their relationship to the GTA market. The fundamentals here are solid over the long term. The short-term opportunity for buyers is real. And for sellers, working with someone who actually understands both sides of this market right now is the difference between a smooth outcome and a frustrating one.

The people who are winning right now are not waiting for certainty. They are making clear decisions with clear information.

That is what I show up to do every day.